Everything is practice

The Brazilian retired professional footballer player PELE said:
"Everything is practice" 
Choose any field of your choice, what needed to become a master of that field is the practice. Without practice nothing happens.

You choose anything like writing a blog, reading books, writing software’s and codes, making stock investments, playing any game (Football, Cricket, Chess, archery.....), acting, singing, exercise, daily routine. Whatever you select, all needs practice to become the master of the field. The more you practice, the more proficient you become. 




The Japanese archery master Awa Kenzô was once sick for several months, which took him away from his craft. Finally, when he was able to get out of bed on a cold wintery day, Kenzo met with a few students eager to resume their lessons. As he spoke with them, he was suddenly beset with pain and left the room to urinate. His students found him outside, his urine dark red, staining the snow. Kenzo looked at them and said simply, 
“This too is practice.”
Although his remark was rooted in the Zen philosophy Kenzo had studied all his life, its truth was a deeply Stoic concept as well.

Marcus Aurelius, who suffered from numerous painful ailments in his life, almost certainly would have agreed. Because the Stoics believed that everything we experience is practice for our philosophy. Everything is a canvas for our mastery. Illness, archery, politics, the way we arrange our workstations, how we respond to obstacles and offenses.

In our schools, we learn to read and write, we gather the useful information for life but we are not more directed towards the wisdom for life, wisdom on how to deal with the world, wisdom on how to become smart? many similar....

This wisdom we learn from reading good books. And keep continuing the practice of reading and learning. 


A young physician went to a Zen Master and asked to be taught Zen. "Zen is not such a difficult practice," said the Master. you are a physician, treat your patients with kindness, that is Zen. " The physician visited the Master three times, but on each occasion, he was told the same thing. The Master said, " a physician should not waste his time here, go home and look after your patients." It was not clear how such a teaching could remove the doubts and confusion about life that the physician had, and so on the fourth visit he complained to the Master. The Master smiled and said, "Perhaps 1 have been too hard on you. 1 will give you a meditation to practice. " He instructed the physician in Insight meditation. The physician practiced this form of meditation each day for two years. At length he thought he had attained clarity of mind, but the Master commented, "you are not there yet." The physician continued to practice. In time his mind became calm and balanced. Problems and doubt dissolved. Emptiness became the Truth. He served his patients well and without ever knowing it, became free from the concern over life and death. The next time he visited the Master, the Master simply smiled.

It is a recurrent theme of mine that spiritual life is ordinary life. There is no separation between the two. To progress in spiritual understanding there is no need to renounce the world, to give up the ordinary things of life and lock yourself away in a cave or a monastery. To cut yourself off from the world. There is no requirement to become a monk or a nun or a recluse. Living in the world is excellent practice.

To find yourself in a situation like this can be very testing, soul destroying in fact, but in spiritual training we must remember that everything depends upon attitude. If you are doing something you don't want to do, then everything connected with it becomes a drudge. Having to work in such conditions can seem like a prison sentence, but if you see this as an opportunity to train and develop, then everything changes for you. No more drudge, just the chance to practice.

When things go well, there is the moment for you to see your mind and watch your reactions. When things do not go well, there is the same opportunity. It all depends on attitude.

Do you see this as the chance to practice or not? If you say yes, there are no more problems for you. Everything changes. However, if you say no, right there in that answer, is the arising of unhappiness.

Unhappiness begins in the mind of the person who always wants everything to go his, or her own way.

When there is no choice, the only thing to do is surrender, to be open and learn. We cannot always choose the conditions we live under. No matter how hard we try, we are not able to make everything perfect according to our desires, and if we attempt to do this, we will suffer.

Look at the world. Look how everyone follows this path, and look at the results when they fail. Misery, anger and unhappiness. From the position of practice, everything is perfect just as it is. There are no special conditions we must create. Nothing special we must do. Whether we work in a factory, a shop, an office, or stay at home and look after the house and family, right there are the perfect conditions for practice. There is nothing outside your mind and body, and so nothing is outside your practice.

Let go of the desire to make everything the way you think it should be, and be with things as they are. Look at your mind, your feelings, your reactions, and there is your practice.

Learn to be open and accepting. This is the practice of the enlightened mind. The free mind. Choosing one thing over another is the foundation of unhappiness. Let go of choice and be with what is.

In life we all must experience many different conditions, some good, some not so good, some downright painful. All of us are subject to the entire range of human emotions and feelings. It is the same for everyone. Pleasure and pain arise endlessly, and if we are attached to one over the other, we will suffer.

One Zen Master has said,

"The Way is simple, it just means giving up picking and choosing."
Usually we would all prefer pleasant bodily sensation to unpleasant bodily sensation, pain, but the story of the meditation teacher in hospital might help us let go even of this choice. He had awoken at home in the early morning with severe pain in his abdomen. This became increasingly worse as the morning progressed, and finally a doctor was called. The doctor suspected kidney stones, and so sent him to hospital for an examination. Once in the hospital, still waiting to be seen, and the pain intensifying each minute, the meditation teacher, in a moment of desperation, heard himself exclaim, 'Jesus Christ, take this pain away.' Then, from somewhere in the back of his mind a voice replied, 'Take it away, I've only just given it to you.' 



Everything is the opportunity to practice, the painful experiences as well as the pleasant. Learn to look at your life as a gift, the chance to attain full enlightenment. The end of all your suffering and unhappiness, and cultivate a mind that will use every possible opportunity to achieve it. 

To do an experiment, just select any new habit that you want to adopt, and do it for next 21 days without fail, it will become a habit or a part of your daily routine.

Start reading 10 pages daily, and soon you can see yourself reading many books.
Start writing blogs, and son you become more clear in your thought process.
Start investing or SIP regularly, and withing a couple of years, you see that your wealth will start compounding and increasing.
Start a habit of daily walk or exercise, and soon you see that your body come in share(I am working on this habit, let's see what happen)
The list will go on..........

I have written one entire blog post on the above Kaizen technique, Please read.

Remember this today as you go about your work or pursue your studies. All that you encounter--intended or inconvenient--is an opportunity for practice and for improvement. But only if you let it be, only if you open your mind to it.

Disclosure: To write the blog, i have taken the help from here.

Keep reading, Keep learning,

-Mahesh

Getting Angry Wastes Too Much Energy

"You can search throughout the entire universe for someone who is more deserving of your love and affection than you are yourself, and that person is not to be found anywhere. You, yourself, as much as anybody in the entire universe, deserve your love and affection."-Gautama Buddha
As a human being, we are not free from biases, human behavior and errors of human behavior. The worst human behavior is envy, jealousy and getting angry.



Getting angry is a human behavior error and it harm more you than others. As we know that everything is a form of energy n this universe. Everything meaning you, me, any physical object or any logical object that is present in this universe is just a form of energy. This concept of energy is best explained by Jaggi Vasudev (Sadh Guru) in his book The Inner Engineering.

What Sadh guru said is - The energy neither created nor destroyed. it just converts from one form to another like what we inhale for living-Oxygen that is exhaled by trees and what we exhale (Co2) is inhaled by trees. so, it just simple give and take or simple transformation of energy from one form to another.

The same is said by Lord Shree Krishna in Bhagvad Gita. In Bhagavad gita the context is different, it is about soul, birth, death and body. What Bhagavad Gita says:
"na jayate mriyate va kadacinnayam bhutva bhavita va na bhuyahajo nityah sasvato 'yam puranona hanyate hanyamane sarire"
The meaning of the above shloka is :

For the soul there is never birth nor death. Nor, having once been, does he ever cease to be. He is unborn, eternal, ever-existing, undying and primeval. He is not slain when the body is slain.

The purport of the above Shloka is :
Qualitatively, the small atomic fragmental part of the Supreme Spirit is one with the Supreme. He undergoes no changes like the body. Sometimes the soul is called the steady, or kutastha. The body is subject to six kinds of transformations. It takes its birth in the womb of the mother's body, remains for some time, grows, produces some effects, gradually dwindles, and at last vanishes into oblivion. The soul, however, does not go through such changes. The soul is not born, but, because he takes on a material body, the body takes its birth. The soul does not take birth there, and the soul does not die. Anything which has birth also has death. And because the soul has no birth, he therefore has no past, present or future. He is eternal, ever-existing, and primeval—that is, there is no trace in history of his coming into being. Under the impression of the body, we seek the history of birth, etc., of the soul. The soul does not at any time become old, as the body does. The so-called old man, therefore, feels himself to be in the same spirit as in his childhood or youth. The changes of the body do not affect the soul. The soul does not deteriorate like a tree, nor anything material. The soul has no by-product either. The by-products of the body, namely children, are also different individual souls; and, owing to the body, they appear as children of a particular man. The body develops because of the soul's presence, but the soul has neither offshoots nor change. Therefore, the soul is free from the six changes of the body.
A simple picture of life rotation or soul journey as per the HINDU Dharma is :



If you look in the science of micro objects then you came to know that everything is built of small fragments particles. and this small fragments are just one form of energy. 



Now, let's think about the anger. What is anger?

Anger or wrath is an intense emotional response usually involving agitation, malice, or retribution. It is an emotion that involves a strong uncomfortable and hostile response to a perceived provocation, hurt or threat. Anger can occur when a person feels their personal boundaries are being or are going to be violated.

Definition suggests that anger is an intense emotion of negative thoughts.

Observe, positive thought motivates you and increase your energy level. The opposite is, negative thoughts consume your energy and drown your energy level and reduce your creativity and motivational state.

"For every minute you are angry, you lose 60 seconds if happiness."

Then why we allow our self to get angry on meaningless things?

The reason is obvious, we don't have control on our biases or behavior and may be we don't know the biases itself.




The energy that we have is limited, so we must use or waste it very cautiously.

There is a wonderful passage in the book : The Boys in the Boat
The book, which tells the story of the University of Washington rowing team in their pursuit of Olympic gold at the 1936 Berlin Olympics, focuses mostly on a young man named Joe Rantz. Rantz had experienced a horrible childhood. His mother died when he was four years old, and his stepmother began throwing him out of the house around age ten. In the end, he would end up abandoned by his family and end up hunting and foraging for his own survival. His father would eventually intervene, only to abandon Joe again when he moved the entire family.

Asked by his fiancée why he wasn’t mad about all of this, how he seemed to take this betrayal and loss so stoically, he tells her:
“It takes energy to get angry. It eats you up inside. I can’t waste my energy like that and expect to get ahead. When they left, it took everything I had in me just to survive. Now I have to stay focused. I’ve just gotta take care of myself.”
And of course, Rantz was well-served by this strategy. A longshot for making the crew at University of Washington, his team would end up narrowly beating Italy in the 1936 Olympics and winning the gold medal. But even if he hadn’t achieved all that success, had he not “gotten ahead”—to use his term—he still would have been right.

The Stoics saw anger as a destructive, draining weight that we add on top of already difficult situations. Like Rantz, they questioned who can afford to burn up so much energy? Things are tough enough, why put yourself further behind just because it might feel good to yell? Or to carry a grudge? Nobody abandons a family because they didn’t know it was wrong. Nobody is going to stop hurting you because you resent them for it. And no amount of rage will ever change the past.

It’s hard enough to survive life as it is. Getting mad about the unfairness or maddening randomness of it all wastes too much energy. Let’s focus our energy on where it can actually make a difference.

Focus to direct your energy in the right direction and see where it will take you in your life. Why to waste your energy on useless things, instead use the energy to increase your wisdom, teach the wisdom to others via physical classes or writing blogs like I write or maintain your health (Exercise).....

In my opinion, this post is very helpful for the person who is short tempered. I have many friends who are short tempered. 

Remember, anger is just an emotion and it is under your control if you want to control it. It is you, who is driving all the emotion inn your body not the body itself drive your emotions. There are many ways to drive your emotions like meditation and whoever have kids, anyway I think they have already learned patience in their life because kids teaches us how we can control our anger.

Let me close the post with the beautiful quote:
"Sometimes you must realize that the world is too beautiful to waste your time being angry or sad when you could be enjoying what life has to offer. "
To reduce or control your anger, reading good books is a best therapy. It will sure help you.

-Keep Reading, Keep Learning
-Mahesh

Freedom : What will you do with your freedom?

Most of the people, on name of freedom, do whatever they want, whatever comes to their mind. But that is not the actual meaning of freedom. We must understand the actual meaning of the freedom, so let's explore the freedom in this post today!
Education is the key to unlock the golden door of freedom. 
George Washington Carver

What is freedom?

As per the definition, the freedom is the power or right to act, speak, or think as one wants. To live the life as one wants. It’s a freedom of living, freedom of thinking, freedom of behaving, and freedom of everything that a human being wants to do and be happy but in the boundary of oneself i.e. your freedom should not be a cause of trouble for others, like playing music in loud in mid night, riding bike fast, similar kind of stuff.

It’s your freedom to play the music in loud but it’s not comes under your freedom to disturb others, right!

Your riding fast may cause an accident and it will ruin the life of others as well as yours.



The economist Adam Smith said:
“One individual must never prefer himself so much even to any other individual, as to hurt or injure that other, in order to benefit himself… and who does not inwardly feel the truth of that great stoical maxim, that for one man to deprive another unjustly of any thing, or unjustly to promote his own advantage by the loss or disadvantage of another, is more contrary to nature, than death, than poverty, than pain, than all the misfortunes which can affect him, either in his body, or in his external circumstances.”
What Marcus Aurelius’ said on the misuse of the freedom is :
"What’s bad for the hive is bad for the bee."
We are a social animal and we have to stay in this society, we must not misunderstand the real meaning of freedom and should not misuse it. Think, if everyone starts misusing their freedom? Imagine how the world will be in that scenario?

if we take care of ourselves, if we hold ourselves to high standards, and we actively work not to hurt other people (because we are all citizens of the same world, as Marcus put it), then we indirectly and directly make everything better for everyone.

In a society of world, we have different types of freedom. We have freedom of association, freedom of belief, freedom of speech, freedom to express oneself, freedom of the press, freedom to choose one's state in life, freedom of talking to each other, freedom of religion, and above this all we have a freedom of choice.

But remember, all the freedom you have in your control but the consequences of the action that you take is not in your control.

Freedom is the open window through which pours the sunlight of the human spirit and human dignity. Herbert Hoover

We are free human being; we have freedom to form societies, clubs, and other groups of people, and to meet with people individually, without interference by the government. We have freedom of to choose your religion, you have freedom to choose your career, and you have freedom to choose your life partner. You are a free bird. This is a biggest gift that you have a freedom to choice and no one can take it away it from you, whatever bad the situation will be.

Without freedom, there is no happiness, there is no meaningful life.

But with freedom, a very big responsibility come, that what you do with your freedom?

Doing work for someone else, having a job or loving someone has nothing to do with freedom. Freedom is NOT doing whatever the heart desires right now. Freedom is the possibility of doing whatever the heart desires right now. Freedom is the possibility of breaking free, if and when needed. Freedom is the confidence of not being chained in an unhappy state. Pursuit of freedom is to continuously ensure that one is not relenting control of life to any person or any sort of circumstances.

You are the architect of your life, so whatever happened, or happening or will happen in your life, no one will be responsible. It's you and only you are responsible, so take this responsibility seriously and start doing something good for yourself and for society.

Most of the people say that they are not enjoying their work or job. They should rethink, what enjoyment they are looking in the work or job, and which work or job will give that enjoyment to them, then once they got the true answer then start your life in that direction.

Instead of giving excuses, give efforts. Slow and steady move in the direction of freedom. 

Like each coin have two faces, the term is used in two ways, one in positive way, that we have discussed above and another is the negative way. 

Recall the 9/11 attack on twins tower, honor killing incidents, gang rapes,  accidents by human overconfidence etc.


the intention to write this post is to identify your positive freedom and direct your life energy towards that direction.

Be safe and let other be safe. Enjoy your freedom and let other enjoy their freedom....

The below image will explain everything about freedom:

 


-Keep reading, Keep Learning

-Mahesh










whatever can go wrong, will go wrong

If you observe incidents closely in your life, specially wrong events then you see that if something will not go in a planned way in your life, something will go wrong then we observe that it will become worst day by day and we wonder why is this happening?

The answer comes to this question form the Murphy's Law
"Things will go wrong in any given situation, if you give them a chance” or more commonly, "whatever can go wrong, will go wrong."


Murphy's Law just reminds us that anything that can possibly happen will eventually happen (including bad stuff). It doesn't really mean we are doomed for failure. If there are 1000 different randomly possibly outcomes then eventually all of them will take place to someone at some time. If some of those outcomes are "bad", and they happen to someone, then that person might think they have been subject to Murphy's Law, but they have actually just experienced one of 1000 outcomes that maybe they didn't happen to want. 

It says you should NOT base important decisions on the unlikely chance that a bad thing will happen, but that you should cover all contingencies if possible.

For example, don't play Russian roulette because you like the 5 out of 6 chance that there is no bullet in the chamber. (Not even if there are 1 million chambers and only one bullet). Who knows it might be your last game (Possible right).

You can relate Russian roulette with uncertainty that involves risk. What Warren Buffett says on Russian roulette:
Well, we don't know exactly what'll happen. I mean, but if you gave me a six shooter and stuck a gun in— a bullet in one chamber and said spin it and five times out of six nothing bad's going to happen, but we haven't done this before, so we're not sure what's going to happen if the sixth one's pulled. It's just silly to do and we raised the debt ceiling seven times during the Bush administration and now in this administration, they're using it as a hostage and you really don't have any business by playing Russian roulette to get your way in some other matter. We should be more grown up than that.

You can see Murphy’s laws in business, manufacturing, software, etc. 

For example, don't write crappy software (or any software) and not test it under all possible conditions. Murphy's Law says that one of your customers will find an untested pattern or usage that will cause the product to fail with unknown consequences. These consequences could even be good! (But that's not very likely).

You can relate to Murphy’s law with other domains like thermodynamics.

Second law of thermodynamics.
"Anything that can increase its entropy, will increase its entropy"

You can see it in your day to day life, if you buy a new house and the builder promised you 2 years’ time, then in most of the cases it will take more than two years’ time. This is true with most of the real life cases.

We will see some examples below:

Ex 1: Despite the 99.99 percent availability that AWS’s (Amazon Web Services) agreement promises, when you are on the cloud, you must believe in Murphy’s Law,
“Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.”

A company’s cloud architecture needs to be stronger than its weakest link.

How Netflix fix this issue of outage in comparison to other large sites hosted on AWS?

It comes from Murphy's law that Netflix’s have deep faith in Murphy’s Law, and thus Netflix developed a tool called Chaos Monkey.

Chaos Monkey is a tool internally developed at Netflix that comes from the idea of unleashing a wild monkey with a weapon in its data center (or cloud) to randomly “chew through cables” thereby disrupting its system. In simpler words, the Chaos Monkey is a bug deliberately activated into Netflix’s systems that make things go wrong with its service on a regular basis.

Netflix know that something may go wrong anytime, so instead of waiting the wrong to happen, they developed this tool Chaos Monkey, that make wrongs to happen like a virus to the system on a regular basis and Netflix find the solution and fix the wrongs (Bugs), so it will become more stronger than its competitors. 


Ex2: Let’s explore the Murphy's law in the world of investing. Recall the law once-
It is found that anything that can go wrong generally does go wrong at the worst possible time.
This is the reason that almost all accomplished value investors give so much importance to risk control and are always looking out for things that can go wrong.

Losing some money is an inevitable part of investing. In fact, there is nothing you can do to prevent it. But to be a sensible and intelligent investor, you must take responsibility for ensuring that you never lose most or all of your money.

Remember Warren Buffett's law of investing:
Rule No. 1: Never lose money.

Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.

When i started share market investing and learning, then i don't know about the Murphy's Law and this ignorance cost me a huge penalty. I bought my first share of a construction company ERA INFRA and the company that time was trading at 40rs and its share price dropped form around 150 to 40, so i thought i am buying the share at a huge bargain but that is my stupidity that i did not enquire about the cause of the bargain and why the stock price crashed from 150 to 40 and why i did not ask myself, that if the price come to 40 then it may go to 0 as well, and as a naive investor i kept averaging the share and bought more, finally i averaged the share till it crashed to 7rs and my average price was 16rs.

Another mistake, instead of accepting that the mistake was made, i believed that the stock will turn around and i make a profit and in tis hope i hold the stock for 1 and half year. And in this time i lost many other opportunities and the stock price crashed to near to zero.

If I know Murphy's law that time, i may have rescued myself from the biggest loss of my investing career.

Checkout the Era infra's performance chart:


You can find different versions of Murphy's Laws. Some of them are -

  •  Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. 
  • Left to themselves, things tend to go from bad to worse
  • Nothing is as easy as it looks - you can see it in the world, it is a complex adaptive system. Everything depends on another thing but it looks simple from outside.
  • Everything takes longer than you think - Any project ( mostly) takes more time than the estimated time, Opera house construction as an example took more than the proposed time.
  • If there is a possibility of several things going wrong, the one that will cause the most damage will be the one to go wrong. If there is a worse time for something to go wrong, it will happen then. 
A chain is no stronger than its weakest link, and life is after all a chain.William James 
  • If you perceive that there are four possible ways in which a procedure can go wrong, and circumvent these, then a fifth way, unprepared for, will promptly develop. this is the black swan in term of Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
  • If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something. This you can term as overconfidence. 
  • Whenever you set out to do something, something else must be done first. 
  • Every solution breeds new problems. 
Observe, in case of traffic management, government make a bridge to reduce the traffic on a signal but in the process to solve the problem of traffic on a signal, it increases the traffic to the next signal. So ultimately the problem is not solved, it moved to the next signal.

Another example comes from the British time, During that time in Delhi the cobra snack’s numbers were increasing and started creating problems for the public so to solve the problem, the government started incentive program, like bring the cobra snack and get rewarded.

The government thought it may reduce the snack’s problem but in return the people started to breed the cobra snacks to get more reward. Once the government identified this trait, they stopped the reward program.

So, the people stopped breeding the snacks and left them on the road, so the number of snacks increased more than the initially identified numbers of snacks in the problem.

How Murphy's law work?

You're sitting in eight lanes of bumper-to-bumper traffic. You're more than ready to get home, but you notice, to your great dismay, that all of the other lanes seem to be moving. You change lanes. But once you do, the cars in your new lane come to a dead halt. At a standstill, you notice every lane on the highway (including the one you just left) is moving -- except yours.

Welcome to the aggravating world of Murphy's Law. This idiom says that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. And it may just be right. This isn't because of some mysterious power the law possesses. In reality, it's us who give Murphy's Law relevance. When life goes well, little is made of it. After all, we expect that things should work out in our favor. But when things go badly, we look for reasons.

Let's close the post from the wisdom of Nassim Nicholas Taleb form the book The Black Swan. What Taleb tells us on why failures fail more often-?
...Failures are also cumulative; losers are likely to also lose in the future, even if we don't take into account, the mechanism of demoralization that might exacerbate it and cause additional failures.

I hope, you get some ideas on Murphy's Law and you can find out more scenarios in your daily life. Please comment your idea’s in the comment section below.

if you are looking more on Murphy's law, do read the book on Murphy's law.

Keep reading, Keep learning,

Please subscribe

-Mahesh

Jim OShaughnessy's teachings on investing

"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin
Jim OShaughnessy, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer, OSAM LLC, Author of  What Works on Wall Street and 3 other books on investing.

Recently Jim twitted a wealth of knowledge on his twitter account. This post is the replica of the twits.

1. I have been a professional investor for over 30 years. What follows is some things I think I know and some things I know I don’t know. Let’s start with some things I know I don’t know.


Once you know that you know nothing, then only your journey of knowing will start and the wisdom and knowledge will expand.

2. I don’t know how the market will perform this year. I don’t know how the market will perform next year. I don’t know if stocks will be higher or lower in five years. Indeed, even though the probabilities favor a positive outcome, I don’t know if stocks will be higher in 10 yrs.

You can not predict the future and you can not time the market. The market will go up or down, no one knows. and who says that they know the direction of the market, they are just making you fool and themselves too. just focus on fundamental of the market and stocks.

3. I DO know that, according to Forbes, “since 1945…there have been 77 market drops between 5% and 10%...and 27 corrections between 10% and 20%” I know that market corrections are a feature, not a bug, required to get good long-term performance.

Market correction is a good opportunity for a value investor. So instead of fearing from the market correction, take the advantage of it and add more good stocks to your portfolio for a long term wealth creation goal.

4. I do know that during these corrections, there will be a host of “experts” on business TV, blogs, magazines, podcasts and radio warning investors that THIS is the big one. That stocks are heading dramatically lower, and that they should get out now, while they still can.

First rule of hare market investing, Don't believe on anyone. Just listen whatever they say if you want and take the important things out of it. Then do your own homework.

Even stop watching this business news channel and stock recommendation sites, this all will not help you in long term.

Do your own analysis, read good books and read company annual reports and then decide whether to buy or not and when to buy.

TV, news, Blogs(on investment tips), market news sites, investment tips are just noise, stay away from this.
In short term, most of the things are just noise, so invest for long term only.



5. I know that given the way we are constructed, many investors will react emotionally and heed these warnings and sell their holdings, saying they will “wait until the smoke clears” before they return to the market.

On noise, don't sell your positions. First understand the situation clearly, then how it may impact the company that you are holding. if the noise or situation affect your holding company in short as well as in long term and with this if the fundamental of the company also impacted, then only take the decision else just pass this noise.

for just a thought:


6. I know that over time, most of these investors will not return to the market until well after the bottom, usually when stocks have already dramatically increased in value.

In expectation of the right price, people don't invest whenever they get the opportunity. Identify the right opportunity on the right time is the investing skill. Whenever you get the opportunity, just buy it and hold it and with time when you got more opportunity just add more.

7. I think I know that, at least for U.S. investors, no matter how much stocks drop, they will always come back and make new highs. That’s been the story in America since the late 1700s.

I feel, the same is true in Indian Stock market context as well. Check the Sensex history, you come to know that after so may crashes and so many up and down still the sensex had returned a very good interest rate compared to FD and Bonds.



8. I think I know that this cycle will repeat itself, with variations, for the rest of my life, and probably for my children’s and grandchildren’s lives as well.

The up and downs are the nature of the market, so you have to understand it and take the advantage of this up and downs. Don't fer from it.


9. Massive amounts of data have documented that while the world is very chaotic, the way humans respond to things is fairly predictable.

10. I don’t know if some incredible jump in evolution or intervention based upon new discoveries will change human nature but would gladly make a long-term bet that such a thing will not happen.


11. I don’t know what exciting new industries and companies will capture investor’s attention over the next 20 years, but I think I know that investors will get very excited by them and price them to perfection.

Change is the only permanent thing that is sure to happen. See the history, and see the change. With the change we need to adapt and change ourselves. When fact change, change your mind.

Identify the MOAT  in the opportunities and invest in the stocks which have a competitive advantage.

What John Maynard Keynes say on this:
"When events change, I change my mind. What do you do?
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?
When someone persuades me that I am wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?"

12. I do know that perfection is a very high hurdle that most of these innovative companies will be unable to achieve.

100% perfect investment is a dream, so if you find 80-95% perfection, just start adding it.( This  is my personal opinion)

13. I know that, as a professional investor, if my goal is to do better than the market, my investment portfolio must look very different than the market. I know that, in the short-term, the odds are against me but I think I know that in the long-term, they are in my favor.

First thing, don't copy and if still you want to copy then first do your homework. Don't compare with anyone else's portfolio or return. Everyone have their own strategy, just learn from their strategy and improve yours. Always invest for long term with a predefined goal in mind. Remember what Benjamin Graham said :
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

14. I know that I can not tell you which individual stocks I’m buying today will be responsible for my portfolio’s overall performance. I also know that trying to guess which ones will be the best performers almost always results in guessing the wrong way.

Don't take tip and don't give tip to your friends. It's not like you are hiding something from them, it's just for their benefit only. Because market is unpredictable and if you give tip to your friend and the market will crash next day, then your relations with that friend is in trouble. 
It's human nature, that people forget the good things easily but they remember the bad things for a long time.


15. I know that as a systematic, rules-based quantitative investor, I can negate my entire track record by just once emotionally overriding my investment models, as many sadly did during the financial crisis.

In investment, before taking any decision, check all your biases. The checklist will help you here. just make a checklist and check each item from the list before making any investment decision. there is a book written by Atul Gawande on checklist, The checklist Manifesto, this book will help you to understand the importance of the checklist in investment and in life. Must read.

There is one book written on investment checklist by Michael Shearn, The Investment Checklist, Pleae do read both the books, to understand the importance of the checklist.




16. I think I know that no matter how many times you “prove” that we are saddled with a host of behavioral biases that make successful long-term investing an odds-against bet, may people will say they understand but continue to exhibit the biases.

As a human, we are prone to make mistakes. We are unknowingly exhibit to human biases and make wrong decisions. We always in constant check, while taking any investment or big decision in life, against any biases. just keep check biases and take the advantages of the biases in your favor. In the book the Art of thinking clearly, the author rolf dobelli have discussed many such biases. A must read.


17. I think I know the reason for the persistence of these “cognitive mirages” is that up to 45% of our investment choices are determined by genetics and can not be educated against.

18. I think I know that if I didn’t adhere to an entirely quantitative investment mythology, I would be as likely—maybe MORE likely—to giving into all these behavioral biases.


19. I know I don’t know exactly how much of my success is due to luck and how much is due to skill. I do know that luck definitely played, and will continue to play, a fairly substantial role.

In the world of investment, luck play a very big role. I think the 90% is the role of luck and 10% is the skill will help you to get success in investment. So don't ignore luck. Don't be overconfident about your skills.
If you start thinking that all your benefits in investing is coming due to your skill only, then you are a fool. 




20. I don’t know how the majority of investors who are indexing their portfolios will react to a bear market. I think I know that they will react badly and sell out of their indexed portfolio near a market bottom.

For a value investor the bear market and market crash is an opportunity to add more quality stocks to his portfolio. So don't \afraid from the bear market and use this opportunity in your favor.

I know the emotions play a very critical role in investing, while market is on down turn then we are afraid and sell our holdings and when market is on top we buy aggressively. This is wrong.

We must do the opposite of this behavior.
Check the cycle of market emotions:



21. I think I know that the majority of active stock market investors—both professional and aficionado—will secretly believe that while these human foibles that make investing hard apply to others, they don’t apply to them.

Human mistakes apply to both professional and new investors. We should keep a watch via checklist on this errors.

22. I know they apply to me and to everyone who works for me.

Be aware that you are not out of the market emotions if you are an  investor.


23. Finally, while I think I know that everything I’ve just said is correct, the fact is I can’t know that with certainty and that if history has taught us anything, it’s that the majority of things we currently believe are wrong.

We should always be open to new findings and new truth and once we get the new information, change accordingly. If the news facts are in align to your investment then its fine but if the new facts are against to your investment then sell the holdings immediately.

Don't be overconfident that you are always and only right. The market is a complex adaptive system and everything is depend on everything else.



Allow me to close the post with the word of Mauboussin on complex adaptive system:
The problem is that modeling complex adaptive systems is a lot messier than those other approaches.
Keep reading, keep learning,
-Mahesh 

Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does


The idea to write this post Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does comes from the book (My favorite) Seeking wisdom fromDarwin to Munger by Peter Bevelin.

The title of the post comes from the well-known investor and one of the richest person in the world: Mr. Warren Buffet. This is Buffett's Noah principle: 
"Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does."



What does it mean? 
It means that telling us about market problems isn't as important as how you act on them.

In stock market, the fluctuations are the part of the market, it works on crowd mentality and all the participant in the market don't think in the same way. The same information is viewed by different people in diverse ways and the meaning also withdrawn in diverse ways. So, the reactions also different. That’s why the market go up and down. And what buffet says here is don't worry about this fluctuation. What Buffett suggests is "Building arcs", meaning use this fluctuations in your favor for the long term wealth creation. If all fundamental is right than invest more in your portfolio on reasonable price levels and this fluctuations (Rain) will help you to get the reasonable price to invest (Help you to create your arc for the long term wealth).

The Noah principle is applied to all unpredictable scenarios (Black Swans in terms of Nassim Nicholas Taleb) whether in market or in life or in business.

What peter Bevelin says in his book is: 
"Why invest resources in something today since we don't get any credit for preventing something we don't even know will happen. "

The world is a complex adaptive system and we cannot predict for sure anything in short term. So how can we predict the market direction in short term. So, the advice is always bet on long term investments.

The book 365 Days With Self-Discipline: 365 Life-Altering Thoughts on Self-Control, Mental Resilience, and Success by Meadows provides the below lessons for us-

We often ignore distant problems and we are reluctant to prevent future threats. Your decision should have a margin of safety, always have some buffer for to go wrong in your decision. You are just a human being and mistakes are part of the decision-making process and can go wrong as well. So, for taking decisions, always keep achecklist of all possible errors or threats, that may impact your long-term decision and direct you in the wrong or right directions. So, the advice is, always keep a margin of safety and always keep a checklist while taking major decisions. One more thing, always keep learning and keep reading, there is nothing called failure or success, it is just learning.

Peter Bevelin shares the words of Warren Buffett in his book as:  
"It took Noah 20 years to build an ark. And people said he was being silly because the skies were beautiful. And of course, the whole time, he looked stupid - until it started raining. You can spend a long time building an ark while everybody else is out there enjoying the sun."

What is the lesson learned here?

Your efforts to improve will draw criticism or ridicule from people who don't care about self-improvement. It's possible you will spend a long time doing things without a reward and starts wondering whether your goal makes sense. Like I am writing this blog and I know it may take a very long time to make sense for me as well as for my readers. But I think it’s a journey for a lifelong learning and as Lord Krishna suggests in Bhagvad-Gitafocus on your Karma, don’t think about the outcome. So, just keep reading, writing and learning, one day you may acquire the worldly wisdom.

"Karmanye Vadhikaraste, Ma phaleshou kada chana, Ma Karma Phala Hetur Bhurmatey Sangostva Akarmani"



 Meaning:  
"You have a right to perform your prescribed duty, but you are not entitled to the fruits of action. Never consider yourself to be the cause of the results of your activities, and never be attached to not doing your duty."

Let’s experience in our day to day life, what is the meaning of the teachings from Krishna and teachings from Mr. Buffet –

Is it worth it to spend several years working so hard to get a degree, build the business or move up the ladder in your company or invest for long time, reading books and writing this blog while others are partying and enjoying their lives on credit?

I think for me, it is a big YES. I am not writing this blog for anyone else, I am not reading the books for anyone else, I don't invest for others. I do this all for myself, I enjoy doing this activity. this is one reason for me to worth this all. The second is, I believe in Karma. Just keep doing the work.....

I know this is a very long process, and during the process you might face doubts and even feel tempted to give up. However, five or ten years from now, the once who were wasting time will get the short end of the stick when they realize that they wasted their time on ultimately meaningless pleasures (Tools of mass destruction), borrowed money on credit cards to enjoy the temporary pleasures, they don't know the benefit of delaying the gratification. Now, they are in debt, worrying about how to pay their bills, and doubting that they will never have a successful career, while you are enjoying the fruits of your labor.

check the analogy: 

Predicting rain doesn't count is enjoying (wasting) the precious time on meaningless things and building arks does meaning investing the same time in meaningful things.

Whenever you are in doubt, remind yourself that you are building an ark and that rain will come. May be now you aren't enjoying yourself as much as others are, but in the grand scheme of things or life, it's better to be prepared and suffer a little now to prosper in the future that live in sweet denial and one day when you realize it, then it's too late.

Most of my friends ask me, why I read books, why I spend less, why I invest the remaining, whatever left or reverse, why I invest first and manage my expenses in the remaining? 

My answer to them is, I am building an ARC for myself, it may, the rain (Any tragedy) come in future.

Now, we all understand, what the ARC building and what is the rain. Let’s explore some more, how we can build our own arc in life, so we get very less damage while it will rain.

Deciding to do nothing is also a decision. And the cost of doing nothing could be greater than the cost of taking an action.

We are the product of our past decisions, that we have taken at some point in past in our life. Whether decision you take consciously or not, but the decision is always taken, because deciding to do nothing is also a decision. And if all the time, we are doing some action as per the decision we make or not make, then it’s better that we should act on our conscious decisions instead of unconscious random life decisions that life through up on us, because the cost of doing nothing could be greater than the cost of taking an action. 
Remember what you want to achieve.

In the process of building your own arc, you should be having a pre-planned blue print or architecture structure of the arc in your mind. else you make something that is of no use. So always know what you want (Your Arc). then act accordingly.

Once we know what to do, we should do it. 

If we identified our arc and we have our blueprint ready clearly in our mind, then why we are not building the arc. Once you know what to do, just do it.

The 19th Century British biologist Thomas Henry Huxley said: 

"Perhaps the most valuable result of all education is the ability to make yourself do the thing you have to do when it ought to be done whether you like it or not. It is the first lesson that ought to be learned and however early a person's training begins, it is probably the last lesson a person learns thoroughly."

In simple words, if you want to travel from the city A to the city B in a car in night, then just start driving, you have car and you have light, the road will be visible to you in the night as well with the help of the car lights, and you will reach to the city B. The thing that is required is the courage to drive in the night.

The first step in solving a problem is to recognize that it does exist.



Start building your arc today, small steps make significant difference in long time. Who know when the rain will start.

Keep reading, keep learning.
-Mahesh